MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
The Angolan economy grew by 0.4% in 2023, slowing down due to the contraction of the oil and gas sector. Inflation increased by 20 % and the tax balance on GDP stood at -0.1 %.
Macroeconomic Framework
WORLD ECONOMY
The world economy grew by 3.1% in 2023, a slowdown compared to the 3.5% estimated for 2022, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The tightening of monetary policy and the reduction in fiscal stimulus, combined with the continuing conflict in Ukraine, in a scenario of high public indebtedness, have slowed global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
The Advanced Economies saw their cumulative GDP decelerate from 2.6% to 1.6%, with the Euro Zone economy being penalized, falling from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. Contrary to the deceleration of the Advanced Economies, there was a stagnation in the growth of the Emerging and Developing Economies at 4.1%.
ANGOLAN ECONOMY
The Angolan economy grew by 0.4% in 2023, according to Government figures, after having grown by 3.1% in 2022. The slowdown was marked by the negative performance of the oil and gas sector, which contracted by 4.1% in 2023, after having grown by 0.6% the previous year. During this period, oil production stood at 1.088 million barrels/day, below the 1.1 million barrels/day recorded in 2022. In turn, the non-oil sector grew by 1.8%, below the 3.9% expansion of 2022, having been penalized by the deceleration of the Agriculture sector (1.3%), Mineral Extraction (0.5%) and the contraction of the Fisheries and Derivatives sector (-0.5%).
FINANCIAL MARKETS
The money supply, measured by the M2 monetary aggregate, increased by 39.1% to AOA 15,791.9 billion, driven by the 50.2% growth in Demand Deposits, the 32.5% rise in Notes and Coins in public ownership and the 29.2% rise in Term Deposits. The increase in the money supply in the economy was largely explained by the depreciation of the exchange rate and the increase in credit to the economy.
Concurrently, the benchmark interest rates of the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) showed a divergent trend, with the BNA rate standing at 18.0%, an annual reduction of 1.5 p.p., following the less restrictive stance of monetary policy, despite the acceleration of inflation that began in May 2023. At the November meeting of the BNA’s Monetary Policy Committee, the Central Bank once again increased the Coefficient of Reserve Requirements in Nacional Currency from 17.0% to 18.0% and maintained the Coefficient of Reserve Requirements in Foreign Currency.
Following an opposite trend was the interest rate on the permanent liquidity absorption, which increased by 2.5 p.p. to 17.5%. Nevertheless, interest rates on the Interbank Money Market fell by an average of 2.8 p.p., with the Luibor Overnight rate falling by 6.0 p.p. to close the year at 4.0%, the lowest level in the BNA’s historical series, which began in 2005.
